There has been discussion on some unlikely, but possible hypothetical scenarios which would be unclear how the market should resolve based on the existing title and criteria.

Hopefully the following clarification is unnecessary, but just in case:
-If Trump extends the deadline at some point following the 19th, but TikTok becomes unavailable for the majority of users in the US for any period of time before the extended deadline begins, then this will resolve NO as soon as TikTok becomes unavailable.
-If Trump arranges for TikTok’s deadline to be extended, and the extension technically begins after he takes power on the 19th, this market will still resolve Yes as long as TikTok never becomes unavailable to the majority of US residents. This applies even if the deadline technically runs out before the extension takes effect.
-All times are determined according to ET.

The description says when to resolve Yes, but when does it resolve No (TikTok banned, or closing date)?

@bagelfan ill extend closing date a bit to be safe

https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/how-many-supreme-court-justices-wil-qnuO6RsOdA

https://manifold.markets/tjade273/which-supreme-court-justices-will-h

I assume if the law is invalidated by the Supreme Court, removing the deadline altogether, as opposed to extending it, this will resolve yes?

Asking because a deadline extension is something the administration can choose to do on its own under the statute’s terms, as opposed to it being invalidated

Edit: should have read the comments below, I see this is already answered

upgraded to plus!

chris u have 180 traders upgrade the market

@jim i tried it might be broken lol

@Manifold Another corner case: what if the ban goes into effect on jan 19th but then trump extends the deadline only after he takes office on jan 20

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/12/27/us/tiktoktrumpamicusbrief.html

Why the divergence in mana vs cash?

@strutheo how will this resolve if scotus delays the implementation by injunction while the president doesn’t delay it?

@Manifold tagging manifold for clarification on the sweepified market

@PaulHabermas currently discussing this

@PaulHabermas that would have the effect of extending the deadline, so I hope it would result in a YES resolution

@PaulHabermas it would resolve to yes.

TikTok have filed an emergency appeal to SCOTUS including a request for a temporary injuction: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/12/facing-ban-next-month-tiktok-begs-scotus-for-help/

sweepified