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This market resolved correctly. The legal deadline for TikTok to divest was by Jan 19th (aka essentially no later than Jan 18th 11:59pm ET).

This deadline was not extended in time, and thus TikTok shut down. Trump had made statements that he was looking to work with TikTok and China to help get the app back up, but at the time of the deadline there were no specific plans announced which is when I resolved this market.

@SirSalty I tend to agree that the market was resolved correctly. However, the reasoning in your post here does not seem correct, and I think it's a bit more complicated.

Technically under the resolution criteria above, it depends on whether TikTok became "unavailable to download" as opposed to whether it became unavailable to use.

How I would characterize this situation is that, several hours before the law took effect, TikTok decided to post a political message on their app stating that they had been banned. At the same time, the Biden administration was taking the position they would not enforce the ban and essentially nothing should happen until Trump takes office. If TikTok had shut itself down but Apple and Google did not remove them from the App Store, then I think the interruption in service would be nothing but a political stunt but TikTok -- while Google/Apple continued to make the app available, TikTok just chose to post a political statement on its app rather than allowing users to access their normal content.

However, my understanding is that Apple and Google did briefly make TikTok "unavailable to download." So even though Trump arranged an extension, since the extension came only after Apple and Google had removed TikTok from the App Store, the app briefly became unavailable to download. So under the last sentence of the resolution criteria, I think a "no" resolution was triggered: "If Trump has announced plans for an extension, but TikTok has become unavailable to download for any amount of time for the majority of US residents as the deadline has passed, then this market will resolve No."

TikTok is back up lol

@Hazel Still not in the Apple app store.

@ChadCotty True true.

@Hazel still can't download it

@EBSnyder I mean if you have it it still works

The way the market was defined, I think it got resolved correctly but the spirit of the market is still correct -- our government found a way to let the app be available until Trump gets inaugurated.

https://x.com/TikTokPolicy/status/1881030712188346459

the only exception to this is if Trump has made and announced clear plans for an extension that begin once he is in power

So we’re just pretending that this has not happened?

@lxgr What are his "clear plans" besides a post on Truth Social and to NBC News saying "most likely" but gave NO details.

@lxgr a concept of a plan lol

@strutheo I mean, the service is already back up…?

just meming

@strutheo Maybe you should stick to that then instead of running markets if you can't even resist prematurely resolving them before the day is over and we've seen whether the apps actually stay gone.

@lxgr

if you can't even resist prematurely resolving them

@Ziddletwix TIL – sorry then, @strutheo!

@lxgr Still not accessible in the Apple App Store.

@ChadCotty Yes, and if it stays that way I’m absolutely in favor of a NO resolve. I also think the chances of Apple or Google doing anything before midnight are slim, but why resolve before we know that?

The deadline has passed. No new law has been passed or announced. TikTok is down for all US residents. Market has been resolved.

@SirSalty deadline has not passed…and trump says it’s alive

TikTok not available but Red note is the #1 rec on my home screen 😂 Good job congressmen.

Tiktok not opening here in America and removed from app stores, resolves NO

Apple, Google remove TikTok from stores as app halts service in US

Published Sat, Jan 18 2025 11:00 PM EST

Updated 3 Min Ago

The Apple App Store and the Google Play store’s removal of TikTok means people in the U.S. can no longer download the popular short-form video app on their devices. TikTok also shut down the service.