Will the first person to walk on Mars be a woman?
Will the first person to walk on Mars be a woman?
Plus
20
Ṁ8022101
46%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If multiple people walk at the same time, resolves to % of women
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 NO
If a women is the captain or something yeah just there are more male astronauts so my guess is no (not saying women are less competent saying that when you have 500 males and 65 females a male is more likely to get a high role because there are more of them)
Are there any bonus points if they do a "two people take the first step in unison" and one is female (imagine stepping off a platform rather than ladder)?
If so, how does that extend to more people? If the first EVA has 1 female and 2 males and they step onto Martian soil simultaneously, does this resolve 50% + 33%?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the first person to walk on Mars be white?
61% chance
Who will be the first person on Mars?
Will a woman walk on Mars before a woman is president of the United States?
49% chance
In what year will a human walk on Mars?
2035
Who will be the first human to set foot on Mars?
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
74% chance
Will the first person to walk on Mars be an Atheist?
42% chance
Will the first person to walk on Mars be a Christian?
61% chance
Will the first person to walk on Mars be Muslim?
12% chance
When will a human first set foot on Mars?