Will the entirety of the currently designated Kaliningrad Oblast still be administered by Russia at the end of 2028?
Will the entirety of the currently designated Kaliningrad Oblast still be administered by Russia at the end of 2028?
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Resolves NO if any part of the territory splits off, becomes annexed, occupied, or otherwise changes administrator to another state/organization other than Russia.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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