Will Elon officially announce a flying car by the end of 2026?
Will Elon officially announce a flying car by the end of 2026?
Basic
28
Ṁ7902027
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ5 NO
What does “unveil” mean to you?
Is it sufficient to announce that he’s considering it or is some concrete commitment figure necessary for the announcement to count ?
bought Ṁ10 YES from 16% to 22% 7mo
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?
85% chance
Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?
54% chance
Will Tesla announce they are working on a flying car by 2030?
27% chance
Will Elon Musk go to space by the end of 2026?
7% chance
Will Elon Musk go to space by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Elon Musk unveil a cell phone project in development by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will Tesla officially announce the development or launch of a new transportation vehicle type by December 31, 2025?
30% chance
Will Tesla release a petrol/gasoline car before the end of 2026?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk release a phone before 2026?
6% chance