🎬Who will win an Oscar before the end of their career? [ADD RESPONSES]
🎬Who will win an Oscar before the end of their career? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
22
Ṁ12802050
84%
Timothee Chalamet
80%
Ralph Fiennes
73%
Michelle Williams
69%
Bradley Cooper
67%
Willem Dafoe
62%
Zendaya
59%
Edward Norton
59%
Amy Adams
52%
Tom Cruise
50%
Matt Damon
50%
Glenn Close
50%
Michelle Pfeiffer
50%
Naomi Watts
50%
Michael Keaton
50%
Steve Buscemi
50%
Paul Giamatti
50%
Laura Linney
50%
Mark Ruffalo
50%
Annette Bening
46%
Johnny Depp
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
bought Ṁ5 Edward Norton YES
Why is Peter O'Toole on here? (I.e. why is that not resolved?)
@JonathanMannhart I don't think that resolving it N/A is correct here.
Not winning an Oscar before the end of one's career (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_awards_and_nominations_received_by_Peter_O%27Toole) is as clear of a “resolves no“-case as they come.
The information is available and applicable to the question of the market, right?
@JonathanMannhart usually you dont allow people to add answers that are obviously yes/no after the fact, otherwise people could just add new ones that automatically resolve and bet on them . NA is the right call here i believe.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
🪦Who will be featured in the Oscars In Memoriam segment in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
What will be true about the next Oscars Academy Award Best Actor winner in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
What will be true about the next Oscars Academy Award Best Actress winner in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Which movie from 2025 will win the Oscar for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
What will be true about the Oscar Best Picture winner at the 98th Academy Awards? (Films from 2025) [ADD RESPONSES]
Will these actors ever win an Oscar??
By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction
18% chance
Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)
64% chance