💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]
💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
98
Ṁ84792030
98.1%
Beeminder
98%
Obsidian (notetaking)
95%
Reddit
94%
AnkiWeb
94%
rdrama.net
92%
Notion
92%
Manifold.markets
92%
Discord
91%
Pornhub
89%
Uber
87%
4chan.org
87%
Substack
86%
Hacker News (news.ycombinator.com)
85%
Tumblr
83%
Hinge
81%
Roam Research
80%
Logseq
80%
Dustloop
80%
SufficientVelocity forum
76%
Genius (Rap Genius)
Rules (work in progress)
If the domain is still there but only hosting a simple page instead of the original product/service, I will not count that as working
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ50 fivethirtyeight.com NO
https://frontofficesports.com/abc-disney-layoffs-538-shuttered/
538 is on it’s way out.
If the website is still there but has significantly reworked their product and gone through multiple owners, like Yahoo or MySpace, does it resolve yes?
answered1y
Manifold.markets
bought Ṁ5 Manifold.markets NO1y
first thought: NO, could easily run out of money
second thought: YES, if the site is dead who cares about losing the bet
third thought: NO, there's a non-trivial chance that the domain could change (e.g. .markets gTLD changes ToS, ramps up prices, ceases to exist, etc.)
By Lindy's law Beeminder will be around, in expectation, till 2036-12-11 or 2040-12-24, depending on what we count as Beeminder's creation date.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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