πŸ‘πŸ‘Ž Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
πŸ‘πŸ‘Ž Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
πŸ’Ž
Premium
433
αΉ€950k
2525
58%
chance
Bet on love
Feb 11
Increased Creation Costs
Feb 24
Profile & Portfolio merged
Mar 6
Manifold.Love sunset
Mar 8
New Numeric market type
Mar 11
Browse ui update, color fill binary mc markets
Mar 23
Austin leaves Manifold team
Apr 2
1-99 bet limit on some markets
Apr 12
Mana economy changes
Apr 12
New mana USD prices
Apr 14
Mana transaction fees enabled
Apr 17
Pivot announcement
Apr 22
Pivot update delaying changes
Apr 25
Updated portfolio graphs
May 1
NA ability removed
May 8
Night before pivot selloff
May 14
Pivot: Spice/Points added, Mana devalued, Market cost changed
May 17
Creators earn 100% fee up to 1000
May 22
Higher question tiers
May 30
Play/Mini tier and expanded mc options
Jun 4
Manifest ends
Jun 10
Quick limit order buttons
Jun 20
Sum to 1 MC markets limited to 1-99%
Jul 11
paginated multi choice markets
Jul 17
James leaves to focus on Manicode
Sep 15
Sweepcash launch
Sep 17
Mana trader bonus returns
Sep 28
Txn fees removed
Sep 30
Re-enable ability to NA markets
Oct 15
Up/Down votes on comments
Nov 13
Mana loan system reintroduced
Dec 6
Boosts removed
Jan 8
Sweepcash fee changes
Jan 22
Market order liquidity change
Jan 29
Betting buttons/slider changes (again)
Feb 4
Slippage protection toggle
Feb 8
Pivot Back to Mana! Spice/Sweepcash removed!
Feb 12
Poll cost back down to 10M
Feb 25
numeric markets added (again)
Feb 27
New movement notifications & new user badge
Mar 6
New trades page
Mar 26
Edit columns in table view
Apr 1
trader bonus changes
Apr 4
The new "share bet" button
Apr 16
tips for market creators
Apr 18
Market drafts
Apr 19

Use mana to let the team know what you think about how they're running the website. 100% means everyone is happy with the direction Manifold is going and the team behind it, and 0% means something has probably gone tragically wrong.

  • Does not impact profit rankings

  • You get your mana back through loans over time

  • Permanently open market, will not resolve.

Other Approval Ratings:

πŸ—³οΈπŸ’­What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q1 2024? [Poll Index]61%β€Œ

πŸ—³οΈπŸ’­What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q2 2024? [Poll Index]42%β€Œ

πŸ—³οΈπŸ’­What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q3 2024? [Poll Index]49%β€Œ

πŸ—³οΈπŸ’­What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q4 2024? [Poll Index]62%β€Œ

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reposted 3d

Market drafts!

bought αΉ€20 YES at 58% 3d
bought αΉ€25 YES7d

At least now there's a warning that the AI is at it again:

Hey guys,

Can you please tell me how to make the short form of embedded view of a market, like the ones of the previous approval markets in the description of this one? There is a "+" button in the bottom right corner of the comment editor, and there is an "Add question" option there, but when I use it looks like this:

instead of one line with "61%" at the end.

Asking here because can't find the answer anywhere

10d

@StepanBakhmarin percent sign

10d

like Chris said, you type a percent symbol and then start typing the name of the market (without a space after the symbol) and it should deliver a dropdown menu where you can find and select your market. it displays like this:


πŸ‘πŸ‘Ž Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]58%β€Œ

@shankypanky
If Jesus can walk on water can he swim on land?90%β€Œ

Thank you!!

Also, how the hell are new users supposed to know that if it isn't written anywhere?

10d

@StepanBakhmarin just a little niche thing to discover I guess! building community by asking strangers for help? πŸ˜…

10d

i figured it out via trial and error after seeing it elsewhere lol

9d

@shankypanky community strengthen then 🀝

@strutheo makes we wonder if i gotta respect anyone who uses it more cause they must be smart and curious

sold αΉ€505 YES11d

The new "share bet" button

11d

bought αΉ€150 NO from 62% to 61% 11d
11d

Yeah I don't think this matters much

11d

Manifolds problem with new users isn't about how consumable they can make the content, this and the shortening of titles are distractions for user growth

11d

New share button is cool though

11d

fwiw i think the #1 goal for growth has to be "reason to care about trading beyond just seeing the number go up". more short term competitions, rewards, etc etc, give people a reason to care about results beyond the abstract satisfaction of being right

reposted

Limit orders currently keep forgetting the expiration interval I set and I have to set it again for each new one… Edit: Either already fixed or problem was on my end.

bought αΉ€1 NO at 60% 16d
20d

AI butchered my description again. Please allow us to disable it. If I want to edit the description, I'll edit it

bought αΉ€1 NO at 60% 20d
reposted 23d

Unique trader bonus reduced by 70% for 100M liquidity markets, unchanged for 1,000M liquidity, increased by 5M for 10,000M liquidity markets, and increased by 10M for 100,000M liquidity.

Unknown user avatar
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2 traders bought αΉ€192 YES 23d
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2 traders bought αΉ€20 NO 21d

@4fa bruh what? So now we need 30 traders to break even? That's frustratingly difficult

21d
21d

@TheAllMemeingEye the goal of market creation is not to break even (and users already get one β€œfree” market per week). People should ask questions they are sufficiently curious about that they are willing to pay for liquidity. And even after the change the incentives are still perverseβ€”the breakeven point is still 3x lower for the lowest quality markets.

(Fwiw I wish manifold went way farther in pushing creators to actually invest in markets they care about rather than slamming low quality ones. And one free market per week already seems like a lot).

@Ziddletwix

People should ask questions they are sufficiently curious about that they are willing to pay for liquidity

While that is certainly an approach one can take, it basically kills fun markets, if I'm losing large amounts of mana then the only markets I can justify making are serious ones about effective altruism or major life decisions, which obviously are still valuable but kinda drain away the recreational value and community spirit of the platform.

And even after the change the incentives are still perverseβ€”the breakeven point is still 3x lower for the lowest quality markets.

I mean yeah ideally the break even point should be similar for all market tiers right? Not sure why they didn't increase the bonuses way more for the higher tiers.

Fwiw I wish manifold went way farther in pushing creators to actually invest in markets they care about rather than slamming low quality ones. And one free market per week already seems like a lot

Personally I find myself in the opposite situation, multiple times a day I will go on the browse by new tab and semi frequently I find myself frustrated by how few new markets have been posted, but obviously your perspective is still equally valid.

24d

trades page has more column options

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2 traders bought αΉ€350 YES 24d
25d

bought αΉ€642 YES from 53% to 57% 25d
25d

@Robincvgr big big improvement from how it was yesterday, but it used to all fit on the screen on mobile and now I need to scroll

Not entirely sure what's changed. Maybe just bigger text.

25d

@Fion yeah on mobile this change has been horrendous

bought αΉ€10 NO at 60% 23d

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana αΉ€ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
β†’ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
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