📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2025? (8.8% DONE)
📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2025? (8.8% DONE)
49
2026
yes
no
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1,0003.00What is this?
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to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2025 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2025?
44% chance
5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2025?
57% chance
5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2025 predict correctly?
72% chance
What WON'T happen by EoY 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?
40% chance