Any type of venue (schools, sports institutions, military) where there is a federally mandated formal process for checking the genitalia of a person to establish their sex. Resolves as soon as it's established.
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This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through BlueSky. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets (except buying & selling at market creation to increase trader count).
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Inspired by the Rumble market series by @CodeandSolder .
Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Must be under the federal system (so not state prisons)
Incidental occurrences resolve to PROB (e.g., a single warden introducing it)
Probability increases steeply with the number of instances
Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:
In institutions like schools, sports institutions, and military, the compulsory genital inspection must be tied to federal funds or guidance.
PROB will be proportional to prevalence and federal involvement.
1,000
3.00One institution verifiably implementing this is sufficient to resolve the entire market YES, correct?
Example: a news report of an inmate of any gender recounting their experience in a Florida prison says the guards forced them to strip naked so they could verify their sex and that this was policy —> market resolves YES, or high probability
@KJW_01294 must be under the federal system (so not state prison), incidental occurrences would resolve to PROB (e.g. a single warden introducing it), but the PROB will increase rather steeply with the number of instances
@skibidist in case of schools etc. it would have to be somehow tied to federal funds or guidance, PROB will be proportional to prevalence and federal involvement
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00