Will ChatGPT 5 be capable of not logging you out every other day?
Will ChatGPT 5 be capable of not logging you out every other day?
Basic
14
Ṁ403Dec 31
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Clock starts ticking once GPT 5 becomes available through the ChatGPT interface or mobile app (whether publicly or to select few as long as it's the same interface).
Will resolve NO if things such as random logouts or login redirect loops are still common, as experienced by me and reported by other people on the internet. Must work reliably for 30 days to resolve YES.
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This is not fixed as of Jan 20th, 2025
Source: my experience confirmed by a cursory Twitter check: https://x.com/jp_beaudry/status/1879709193747505318
bought Ṁ35 NO5mo
You would think that an imminent ASI able to generate high quality movies to a prompt should be able to solve this.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00