Will an open model take the 5th spot on chatbot arena before EOY?
Plus
14
Ṁ432Jan 1
78%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
If any open source or open weight model takes the 5th position or better on the leaderboard for at least a day before the end of 2024, this market resolves YES. Otherwise NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@traders I'm pretty sure this never happened. I'll resolve NO tomorrow unless someone with better memory corrects me.
Related questions
Related questions
Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
60% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will China have a model in the top 10 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena on March 1, 2025?
48% chance
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will I think that the top Chatbot Arena scores accurately reflect which LLMs are most capable and useful at EOY 2024?
36% chance
Until what date will an Google model hold the top position in the Chatbot Arena? (>=week)
Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
85% chance
What will be the highest ELO on Chatbot Arena on Jan 1, 2025?