On June 23, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a phased 24-hour ceasefire between Iran and Israel, aiming to end the 12-day conflict. (apnews.com) This market resolves to 'Yes' if no major military actions (e.g., airstrikes, missile attacks) occur between Iran and Israel from June 24, 2025, to July 23, 2025. Minor skirmishes or isolated incidents will not affect the resolution. Verification will be based on reports from reputable news outlets such as Reuters and AP News.
I will not bet on this market.
1,000
3.00@AhronMaline From my perspective, it wasn't a major re-escalation. I understand that this is quite an ambiguous market (much more subjective than I intended), and I do not plan to bet in order to maintain unbiasedness.
From the media coverage I've seen, there was a limited exchange on the morning of the 24th, with both sides blaming each other for breaking the ceasefire, but it appeared to de-escalate rather quickly. I’d consider this more of an isolated incident than a major re-escalation, but, if you are able to point to credible reporting that clearly classifies it as a broader military escalation, I’m absolutely open to revisiting that judgment.
@sahaj Yes, the Iranians shot two missiles (which were shot down), and the Israelis wanted to rescalate back to full war, but Trump bullied them into only hitting one minor target. So in the end it turned out not to be "major".
Thank you for clarifying.
Well that didn't last long...
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/at-least-one-ballistic-missile-launched-from-iran-at-israel-as-tehran-breaks-ceasefire/
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer In the big picture I am not sure this counts, as there was no attack since
@NoamY "e.g., airstrikes, missile attacks"
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
(I'm out of the market because it's likely going to come down to interpretation).