NYC Mayoral Election Prop Bets

Ṁ44k

Nov 11

78%

Mamdani makes a new Twitter/X Tweet that gets 500k likes before market close

72%

Mamdani wins 50.49%+ of the vote

32%

Mamdani makes a new Twitter/x tweet that gets 1m likes before market close

99%

Mamdani makes a new Bluesky post that gets 50k likes before market close

99%

Mamdani makes a new Bluesky post that gets 70k likes before market close

55%

Mamdani makes a Bluesky post that gets 100k likes before market close

Mamdani makes a bluesky post that gets over 300k likes before market close

39%

Bill Ackman makes a tweet @ing Mamdani that is over 5,000 characters long by market close

Add any NYC mayor election props.

Time zone is EST

Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): NewsNation does not count as a major news outlet for the purposes of this market.

Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "This market is in the top 5 on Manifold at 9:30pm ET on Nov 4" refers to the top 5 Best markets (not Hot markets or other categories).

Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "NYT calls the election an 'upset' or similar term": "improbable" does not count as a similar term to "upset".

Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the count is not over and the market should not be resolved yet, despite the election having occurred.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

and

3.00

24 Comments

81 Holders

488 Trades

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bought Ṁ100 YES

@JackP https://x.com/NY1/status/1985904533629796688?t=gpjq4xGMmyXp_FJI6dJbJg&s=19

guys the count isn't over...

@realDonaldTrump Does "improbable" count?

bought Ṁ1 NO

@sn no

AP has called Zohran Mamdani as the winner

@realDonaldTrump Is this in the top 5 Hot markets, the top 5 Best markets, or something else?

@CollinMatthews top 5 best

@JackP https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1985886200154997049

@realDonaldTrump

bought Ṁ150 YES

@Marnix For reference: the post he made after getting the nomination has 68k and is his most-liked post of all time

@Marnix It'll probably be this one: https://bsky.app/profile/zohrankmamdani.bsky.social/post/3m4tzl74rss25

🤖

Meowdy! This NYC mayoral prop bundle is spicy with insider nods and wild options. I’ll pounce back later tonight to refine my picks after more data rolls in. Stay tuned for fresh whisker-twitching insight!