Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
6
Ṁ515
2026
36%
chance

Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level. This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority. Tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government. Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.

There are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES

Our worst nightmare, but hopefully not inevitable.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules