Definition:
A "3rd assassination attempt" is any act intended to cause the death of Donald Trump after the first documented attempt.
Criteria:
Confirmed Attempt: Must be recognized by at least two credible news sources (e.g., major newspapers, international agencies, or official government statements) and identified as an assassination attempt by law enforcement or government authorities.
Target: Donald Trump must be the explicit target while alive, with the attempt clearly directed at him.
Time Frame: Any events from the market opening date until January 31, 2025.
Documentation: Evidence must be from credible sources such as police reports, official statements, or court documents. Rumors or unverified reports do not qualify.
Nature: Must involve violence or a weapon (e.g., firearms, explosives, poisoning) with the intent to kill. Non-violent threats or intercepted plots do not qualify.
Multiple Incidents: Each event is evaluated independently; the market resolves upon the 3rd confirmed attempt.
Exclusions: Incidents not clearly targeting Trump personally, accidental or unintentional acts, false alarms, or debunked events.
Final Resolution: The market resolves on the first confirmed 3rd assassination attempt meeting all criteria. If none by the closing date, it resolves to "No."
Sources: Accepted sources include major national newspapers (e.g., The New York Times, The Washington Post), international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP), and official government statements.
The current count is 2. So any other attempt would resolve to YES.
1,000
3.00Asking to resolve YES as there have already been 3 assassination attempts on Trump according to major newspapers.
#1: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/21/michael-sandford-trump-rally-assassination-las-vegas
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/7821b5b9-4dda-4225-8bc0-e172f7d6ef70
#2 (July 2024) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw5yrv2kwexo
#3: (Sept. 2024) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/judge-delays-trial-of-man-accused-in-florida-trump-assassination-attempt
@Lexer There's been even more than three (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_incidents_involving_Donald_Trump), but this market is obviously not asking about the precise count but instead asking if there will be a new attempt in the future. It's a prediction market after all.
@Lexer given that creator said yesterday that the current count was 2, and edited it into the post, I'd assume that only two count for the purposes of this market and that we are still waiting on another for resolution purposes.
@Lexer additionally in the criteria for the market it says it's about events occurring since market creation and all the events you listed are before. I think Arg is right that this about whether a new assassination attempt will occur after market creation.
@predyx_markets please confirm whether the previous attempt counted or not? What is the current count?
