The deal may face opposition that causes it to fail:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/investing/us-steel-nippon-steel-deal/index.html
Will the deal go through to completion?
Resolves according to reputable news reports or official government sources that the acquisition of the deal has successfully concluded and faces no legal opposition (YES), or press releases from either company officially withdrawing from the deal (NO).
The market date will be extended indefinitely until the outcome is decided.
I will not follow strict legalese regarding resolution criteria as there are many loopholes, so this question will foremost try to follow the spirit of the question.
Update 2024-11-12 (PST): The market will remain open as long as there are legal challenges to any proposed blocking of the deal, including forthcoming or promised legal challenges reported by news sources. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - Market close date has been extended by one year. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00Using the DPA, President Biden has formally blocked the deal (as long anticipated):
Nippon steel (as previously promised through the press) has issued a press release in response stating that they will take legal recourse:
A reminder to bettors of the implications of this markets original resolution criteria: this market will be extended as long as there exist legal challenges (including any forthcoming/promised ones in reporting) to any proposed blocking of the deal as have been indicated by recent news sources: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/biden-set-to-finally-kill-nippon-steel-s-proposed-takeover-of-us-steel
As per the previous comment, the market's close date has been (somewhat arbitrarily) extended one year.
Might be interesting (yet unsurprising) seeing Nippon steel advertising in Punchbowl newsletter with a link to their advertising campaign for the merger: https://www.bestdealforamericansteel.com/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=5/20/24%20%20Punchbowl%20News%20AM&utm_term=Punchbowl%20AM%20and%20Active%20Subscribers%20from%20Memberful%20Combined
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00