The first round of Romania's presidential election is scheduled for May 4, 2025. If no candidate secures a majority, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff on May 18, 2025. This market predicts which two candidates will advance to the second round. Source

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the option that correctly identifies the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round of the Romanian presidential election on May 4, 2025, and thus advance to the runoff election scheduled for May 18, 2025. If the election is canceled, postponed beyond 2025, or resolved in the first round (if a candidate receives more than 50% of votes), this market will resolve N/A.

Background

Romania's presidential elections follow a two-round system. If no candidate receives more than 50% of votes in the first round, the top two candidates advance to a runoff election. The 2025 election will determine who succeeds Klaus Iohannis, who cannot run for a third term due to constitutional limits.

Key candidates include:

• George Simion: Leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR), currently polling as a frontrunner

• Nicusor Dan: Independent mayor of Bucharest with support from center-right voters

• Crin Antonescu: Candidate of the ruling coalition

• Elena Lasconi: Leader of the Save Romania Union (USR)

• Victor Ponta: Former prime minister running as an independent

Recent polling suggests George Simion and Nicusor Dan are currently the most likely candidates to advance to the second round, though the political landscape may shift before the election.