Which account will get to 1,000 followers first, my Elon-simping X account, or my Elon-hating bluesky account?
Plus
24
Ṁ1258Dec 19
Elon derangement sufferer (bluesky)57%
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I have created two alt accounts on Twitter/X and Bluesky. The account on X will be posting and engaging non-stop with pathetic Elon simp content, and the Bluesky account will be posting and engaging non-stop with deranged Elon hate content.
Who will win?
Once this market is decided, I will open a new one and move up to 10k followers.
Update 2024-23-12 (PST): The creator will impose a limit on the number of accounts they follow to either 100 or 500 accounts to prevent this from becoming a follow-for-follow competition. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I'm thinking of imposing a 100 follows or 500 follows limit on the number of people I follow, otherwise this would just turn into a follow-for-follow race
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will BlueSky overtake X in active users before June 1st 2025
2% chance
Who will be the most followed user on Bluesky / Bsky at the end of 2025?
Will X/Twitter outlive Elon Musk being in control?
69% chance
Who will be the first Twitter/𝕏 user with >= 1 billion followers?
Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?
14% chance
Will a Twitter account reach 500M followers before a human walks on the Moon again?
4% chance