Brown University shooting facts

140

Ṁ13k

Jan 12

99%

At least one victim dies

92%

A member of a federal intelligence organization asks for the public to submit tips

79%

Shooter is a white male

64%

Shooter a current/former Brown student

60%

Is a resident of Rhode Island

54%

At least one victim specifically targeted

54%

Shooter motivated by antisemitic or anti-Israel sentiment

48%

Shooter has a manifesto

45%

Shooting was a targeted attack on Ella Cook.

42%

Shooter had left-wing politics

42%

Shooter is a muslim

40%

Trump uses this shooting to crack down on immigrants, crime, or “the left”

39%

Shooter a current or former Brown employee

31%

Shooter dies prior to capture

27%

The shooter is classified as an nihilistic violent extremist

25%

Shooter had right-wing politics

24%

Shooter is not motivated by politics

20%

At least 3 students killed

15%

Shooting was a targeted attack on the Uzbek victim.

13%

At least one other perpetrator/conspirator involved

https://www.browndailyherald.com/article/2025/12/active-shooter-on-campus-department-of-public-safety-reports

Resolution by majority of credible media reports at market expiry as judged by me; I won't trade on my own answers.

Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If most information remains uncertain at the original market expiry date (Jan 12, 2026), the deadline will be extended for questions that remain uncertain.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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this can resolve NO

https://abcnews.go.com/US/brown-university-shooting-manhunt-continues-fbi-offers-reward/story?id=128443272
Some more updates here, including the video of the current suspect, relevant to several of these answers.

https://manifold.markets/Balasar/when-will-the-brown-shooter-be-appr?r=QmFsYXNhcg

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 44% order

Limit order up until 2:20pm EST. (~20 minutes)

https://www.wpri.com/news/local-news/providence/brown-university-reports-active-shooter/ The suspect in custody has been released.

Oh boy. For once I'm happy I'm not trading on this market: I don't enjoy roller-coasters.

If by some misfortune most everything is still in the air at market expiry (Jan 12) I will extend the deadline on questions that remain uncertain.

@nonnihil it's pretty illiquid too

@nonnihil can u add some liqidity

@JeromeHPowell I can't make head or tail of the liquidity subsidy stuff. I'll add some because you seem to know what you are talking about but... Manifold couldn't create stronger "this is a scam" vibes around liquidity subsidy if they tried.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@nonnihil Subsidies are an arcane art. It can be mastered, but knowing where to find educational material on this is difficult. @Eliza is our resident liquidity shifu.

@nonnihil I got screwed over just a few days ago https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-should-do-anything-other-t#tlOy5Ipu

@nonnihil This is the context to Jerome's comment above: https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-should-do-anything-other-t#tlOy5Ipu

@JeromeHPowell You got reimbursed, at least.

@Quroe yes, @Gen was very gracious

what a bunch of clowns, FBI is now 2 for 2 on getting the wrong guy, have to wait for the shooter's parents to turn him in now...

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/14/us/benjamin-erickson-brown-university-shooting
Yet more updates on the suspect in custody, painting a bit more of a picture here...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/brown-university-shooting-live-updates-rcna249097/rcrd94445?canonicalCard=true
The current suspect has been identified.

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 50% order

For the people that keep betting the antisemitism option up to 80%, there's 1000 mana on NO that you can gobble up at 50% (lasts one hour).

@Balasar I'm not looking forward to sussing out whether prediction-holders mean that option to capture a motivation of the shooter in favor of antisemitism or a motive against the perceived antisemitism of Brown econ students, or both, so I'm hoping for my own sake that no relationship to antisemitism exists at all.

So anyway whoever is bidding that option up... no offense, but I'm kinda really hoping you lose.

@nonnihil can’t say I thought of the anti-antisemitic motivation when I wrote that option!

Further updates: https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/brown-university-shooting-12-13-25

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