Will Mani be seen as a mistake by the Manifold community at the end of 2025?

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Ṁ1805

2026

60%

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Mani is the upcoming slimmed down Manifold app designed for normie users.

At the end of the year I will make a community poll asking the following question:

"Was Mani a mistake?"

This market will resolve after the poll has been up for a week based on poll results. If the poll is somehow compromised due to botting or some other untrustworthy methods, I will work to count non-bots only.

I will NOT bet in this market, and will NOT vote in the poll.

If Mani is never publicly released, resolves N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Lol. Mani is the name of the breeding bull of simmenthal stock that my cousin sold for a finnish record price.

bought Ṁ5 NO

There's a bit of postselection bias here, as many of the "mani = bad" scenarios will result in N/A.

I'm betting down a bit based on this.

@VitorBosshard +1, opportunity cost is a thing. One of the main failure cases is no real deliverable but lots of wasted effort. Counting this as N/A only makes sense if it's abandoned quickly with little investment.

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