Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, Manifold Markets establishes a central bank or a banking apparatus that performs functions such as issuing currency, regulating monetary policy, or overseeing financial institutions. Official announcements from Manifold Markets or credible news sources will serve as the basis for resolution.

Background

Manifold Markets is a platform that facilitates prediction markets, allowing users to bet on various outcomes. As of now, it does not operate as a financial institution with central banking functions. Central banks typically manage a nation's currency, money supply, and interest rates, and may also oversee the commercial banking system. (federalreserve.gov)

Considerations

The establishment of a central bank by a private entity like Manifold Markets would be unprecedented and may require significant regulatory approvals and structural changes. Additionally, the evolving landscape of digital currencies and decentralized finance could influence the feasibility and nature of such an initiative. (bis.org)

• Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the relationship between the user project BANK and this market's resolution.

  • The BANK project was the inspiration for this market.

  • In its current state, BANK does not meet the resolution criteria as it is not an official Manifold entity.

  • However, the market would likely resolve to Yes if the BANK project were to be made into an official central bank by Manifold or given such authority.