Manifold adds options trading by 2028 election?
11
Ṁ267
2028
18%
chance

Will Manifold add options trading by the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

This market resolves YES if Manifold introduces any form of options trading—that is, any mechanism allowing users to buy or sell the right, but not the obligation, to enter a trade at a specific probability—before November 5, 2028 (the date of the U.S. presidential election).

Examples that would count include:

  • The ability to buy a call option on a market at 80% (e.g. paying a fee now for the right to buy YES shares at 80% even if the price later rises to 95%).

  • Structured markets allowing users to buy exposure only above/below certain thresholds.

  • Features enabling users to post and accept custom option-like contracts, even if limited to high-volume or subsidized markets.

  • A system resembling binary option spreads, strike-based options, or even yes-share ladders with strike payouts.

Edge-case implementations still count, so long as users can express option-style bets in a defined, platform-supported way—not just through informal arrangements or external scripting.

This market resolves NO if no such options feature is introduced by Election Day 2028

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I think that would be a lot of work and the app doesn't seem to have much of a business model.

@jessald in agreement. It would be easier on highly subsidised markets , I have a feeling it might not be available on markets with less than like 10 K subsidies

if anyone from Manifold wants to chime in would be very much appreciated in this market

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