Ilya Sutskever announced today that he will be creating a new company Safe Superintelligence (SSI). What will be true of this company by EOY 2025?
Answers will resolve early if the criteria are met before EOY 2025. Answers starting with “I will believe” refer to @mr_mino , the market creator, unless otherwise specified. I will resolve NO for all questions without evidence. E.g. “The model will score > 85 on MMLU” will resolve NO if no one demonstrates that their model has achieved this score, even if it seems likely that it will if tested.
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@CameronHolmes It's reported that they're also using TPUs in Google Cloud: Ilya Sutskever taps Google Cloud to power his AI startup's research | TechCrunch.
I don't know if we'll have enough information to resolve this though.
They’ve raised exactly $1B, annoyingly.
Valued at $5B - a couple of options can be resolved. @mr_mino
Not planning to work at SSI
@CameronHolmes I'm mainly wondering whether they will go down the Anthropic/GDM path and use TPUs/ASICs, but it seemed simpler to do the negative framing rather than try and catch all alternative options.
Yes, this is an interesting question. There’s a related question of whether they’ll build their own chips
ML researchers rarely publish in journals, and big players (like OpenAI) often don’t even bother with conferences or other forms of peer review.
"the company will declare bankruptcy"
Daniel Gross is one of the most successful investors in the current wave of technology. He could fund a meaningful research org singlehandedly for years. Also, for the next five years Ilya is going to be able to meet with ~any investor and raise capital
Anthropic raised billions from Amazon (presumably granted in the form of compute). Gross has access to a modest amount of compute through his fund.
Any hyperscaler (Nvidia, any other cloud) would gladly fork over billions in compute for a % ownership
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00