Will Stuttgart 21 finish before 2026?
Will Stuttgart 21 finish before 2026?
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Stuttgart 21 is railway project around Stuttgart main station which costs nearly 10 billion euro at this point. It converts the current terminus station into an underground station. The latest estimate for start of operation I found is December 2025 (initially 2019).
For this question, we define "start of operation" when they made an official announcement, a train stops at the underground station, passengers board or exit, and then the train departs to the other side (not a terminus station). Test runs do not count.
Resolves YES immediately if the start of operation happens.
Resolves NO on 2026-01-01.
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Does your definition of "start of operation" include test runs with passengers and other train rides that are outside of the official schedule (e.g. as part of the opening ceremony)?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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