Major blunder in a physics paper attributed to AI by the end of 2025
Major blunder in a physics paper attributed to AI by the end of 2025
➕
Plus
26
Ṁ855
2026
45%
chance

Will a physics paper be published in Nature or Science and later be found to have a major mistake that the authors will publicly blame on machine learning tools, by Dec 31, 2025?

The paper must have been accepted for publication after the market creation date. It must be later found to be incorrect in such a way that the main result does not hold anymore. The authors must publicly admit that the mistake was due in large part to the AI/machine learning methods they relied upon. The fact that the authors take personal responsibility for the mistake is irrelevant, as long as they credibly link it to AI. Careless use of AI tools counts.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

There is a discrepancy between the title and description: "blame" in the title seems to imply that this should resolve yes even if the researcher unconvincingly tries to blame an AI tool in "dog ate my homework" style. The description however requires "credible link to AI", which would IMHO be better described in the title as "attributed"...

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules