bet on if the girl i havent talked to in a year but go to school with replies to my message (timed-sent btw)
Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will not be resolved to YES immediately if a text message is received. Instead, they will wait for the entire two-week period to conclude before resolving the market.
Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that they have blocked the person for the two-week period. Any texts sent by her during this time will bounce and not be received. The creator will check after the two weeks if a text was sent during this period to determine the market's outcome.
Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that if the market resolves to YES, they will show the text message as proof.
Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to questions about how blocking works, the creator has stated their belief that any texts sent during the block period will be delivered after the number is unblocked. The resolution will be determined by whether a text is received at that time.
1,000
3.00PSA: regarding the "allegations." i blocked her so any texts bounce until the unblock at 2 weeks. ill check all my sources and stuff to see if it happened after the two weeks, but i'm staying as much in the dark as you. therefore; i can bet on what i think will happen, because i am as in the dark as you all are. also, i'm white, not the asian guy in jenny's post.
@johnbettington i also dont really know how this site works i just thought you could bet to bet; if it makes you feel better i was always on team no
@johnbettington This is the best plot twist in a market I've witnessed in a long time. This is going to be a fun one.
@johnbettington Also, welcome to Manifold! We like to be silly here. You've added a great deal of fun to the community with this market.
@johnbettington won't texts during the block just fail to send, rather than be waiting to be shown upon unblock?
@TheAllMemeingEye Oh, good point. I've never actually had to block a human-verified phone number before. Has somebody science'd this and tested what happens?
@johnbettington , since it seems relevant to this market, are you straight? And does this girl know?
Beware, traders. I smell market manipulation.
While this is all above board and technically fair by all the rules I see here, be careful.
The Market Creator stated that they would let the market play out until the 2 weeks is up, not saying if she texted back until then, supposedly dissuading us from trading on theta decay.
However, no rule stated that the market creator could not trade on this market!
@JennypucZt and @johnbettington, AKA Jenny and jeremy, respectively, seem to be people of interest in the trade ledger.
The Market Creator and Jenny slammed the market down to 10% last night. Jeremy, obviously in the know about the status of this text conversation, has insider information, and made an implicit signal that the text hasn't happened yet with that 1,000 mana trade.
Also, to add more context from my investigation, Jenny is a new user and was paid 1,000 mana to make that slew of trades.
Given all this context, I assume that the market Jenny made here is related to this text message market: /JennypucZt/does-this-guy-like-women
All this to say, if the Market Creator wanted to keep a secret for 2 weeks, I'm afraid the cat's out of the bag.
Full disclosure, I too am playing this market. I just now purchased a NO order with the expectation that the rest of you all will buy the market down so I can sell at a profit. I have no relation to these 2 users and am only trying to monetize my market research. Happy trading!
@SimonWestlake Agreed, I made a whole game show about it. 😉
Insider trading
Unlike many other places, Manifold encourages you to make markets more accurate by trading based on private information you might have. (This is sometimes referred to as “insider trading”). As long as you didn’t have some other duty to keep the information private, such as:
duty to your company,
duty to the person who told you this information, or
a public commitment made on the market,
the Manifold community welcomes insider trades. Caveat emptor!
-Manifold's Community Guidelines
@Quroe I might be wrong, but this is insider trading, not market manipulation, right? I thought the latter would be doing malicious stuff to make it resolve in your favour e.g. texting the girl that the market creator is a sex offender
@TheAllMemeingEye Perhaps you're correct. Maybe "manipulation" isn't the best word... But...
It is interesting that Jenny is talking up YES sentiment, but they have the biggest NO position at time of comment. I won't entirely uproot my heels from their dug in position.
@Quroe ah, fair enough, I guess you could say that the misinformation of talking it up while having insider info that it should actually be down might itself count as market manipulation, a sort of alternative pump and dump (pump and short?)
The turns have tabled. https://manifold.markets/johnbettington/her-texting-me-back-within-two-week#iqcetx87w8k