Will Grok 4 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard? | Manifold

Will Grok 4 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?

4

Ṁ573

2027

51%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard

Resolves YES if Grok 4 has the highest Arena Score at any point within one week of it appearing on the leaderboard.

Resolves N/A on Jan 1st 2027 if it doesn't seem like we're going to get a Grok 4.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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non-reasoning grok 4? as in if there are grok 4 and grok-4-thinking or similar, this market is asking only about grok 4? asking bc i think in a few months the models that top lmarena will be reasoning models most of the time

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