Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek r1 in LiveBench? | Manifold

Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek r1 in LiveBench?

Plus

50

Ṁ9703

Apr 20

88%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves as soon as Grok 3 has a rating in https://livebench.ai. DeepSeek-r1 currently has a global average of 71.57, which Grok 3 would have to beat for this market to resolve as YES.

Credit to @ChaosIsALadder for the market format.

Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
- The market will resolve based on the first global score of a Grok 3 model.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

what happens if grok3 is significantly updated before all its scores are released on livebench?

@CrypticQccZ i think it just resolves based on the first global score of a grok 3 model

Which Grok 3? The reasoning variant or non reasoning model?

Related questions

Will GPT-4.5 rank above Grok 3 on Chatbot Arena?

Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek R1 on the chatbot leaderboard?

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

What will Grok 3's score be on Humanity's Last Exam?

Grok 3 MMLU Benchmark Score

Will DeepSeek R2 be open source?

+29% 1d79% chance

Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek 3 on the chatbot leaderboard?

When will DeepSeek release R2?

What will be true of Grok-2?

Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?

Related questions

Will GPT-4.5 rank above Grok 3 on Chatbot Arena?

Will DeepSeek R2 be open source?

Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek R1 on the chatbot leaderboard?

Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek 3 on the chatbot leaderboard?

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

When will DeepSeek release R2?

What will Grok 3's score be on Humanity's Last Exam?

What will be true of Grok-2?

Grok 3 MMLU Benchmark Score

Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules