When will GPT-4 be open-sourced?
Plus
13
Ṁ20582027
1.6%
2024
3%
2025
9%
2026
87%
later/never
Musk is suing OpenAI. He wants them to start open sourcing their stuff again. Will they?
https://www.courthousenews.com/elon-musk-sues-openai-over-ai-threat/
"Musk brings claims including breach of contract... asks for the company to revert back to open source"
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Manifold doesn't support that. No answers can resolve until the final answer is determined.
Also, there are still months left to go in 2024 so it wouldn't make any sense to resolve it now even if it were possible
definition of open source- more information on architecture and training? open weights? free for most/all use cases? something more?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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