I made a market for the series as a whole https://manifold.markets/TylerMurphy/what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry-CqQO9zp2nq

@evan How do we even quantify that? Like, what needs to happen for "yes" to win this?

@MikeFrenkel I'll watch it, if it seems woke resolves YES. Otherwise NO

In the book it's "Harry - you're a wizard"

The book makes it seem like he's not wearing a head covering and he doesn't meld with Voldy until later on

Omg please na @jim I didn't know it was 1000

@strutheo mandrake root

If we don't get to Hogwarts on the first episode how does the last 10minute question resolve?

@RicardoVieira Presumably would resolve NO

@Bandors Then it's True only i it happens in the last 10 minutes of episode 1, not before nor after

I'm probably not gonna bet because the resolution condition(s) are not clearly (or at all) defined, and I hate even taking part in this discussion (Idgaf about the race of anyone, only about the integrity of these markets), but looking at the few pictures Google gives me of Stanton, she is obviously not white. I don't know if we have a different definition for 'white' in Europe or something, but whatever ethnicity she is, it's definitely not white lol. 71% on this option is ridiculous.

@dgga yolo

What are you going to do about the questions that refer to characters/things that will likely not be in the first season, but rather subsequent seasons? Rita Skeeter, etc.

@bens N/A seem like the most reasonable option

@bens I made a market for the series as a whole https://manifold.markets/TylerMurphy/what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry-CqQO9zp2nq

@jim a few clarifying Qs:

• Does Indian here mean birthplace in India, current Indian citizenship, family origin in India, or racial phenotype traits of one of the groups mostly located in India?

• Is India the just the country, or the whole subcontinent (including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka etc.)? Does it include the East/West Indies? Does it include the US if native American? (according to CGP Grey, Indian is the preferred self-identification among most US native American groups, even though it originates from a misnomer)

• Does this resolve to a percentage if mixed race/nationality?

@TheAllMemeingEye idk, doesnt manifold have some rave scientists we can consult?

@jim Are you saying I can decide here and now which definition I think is best and you will promise to use it?

@jim >rave scientists
Yes but I don't think that's what you meant.

@Bandors Only just noticed it was a typo and not "rave" as in "overly manic" XD

@jim including cameos?

@mattyb Ethnically or nationality? Arabella Stanton is obviously not ethnically British, unless multi-racial also resolves yes.

brittishness is defined as one who has a brittish accent I believe

@Bayesian My daughter has a slight British accent due to her love of Peppa Pig.

Oh no and for Malfoy - do they mean the actor or the character will have blonde hair ? The actor seems brown haired