Defined as 100 human cases or more, as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will be resolved based on the CDC weekly report published approximately 5 days after the end of 2024.
1,000
3.00@JonathanNankivell "Confirmed and probable cases are typically updated by 5 PM EST on Mondays (for cases confirmed by CDC on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday), Wednesdays (for cases confirmed by CDC on Monday or Tuesday), and Fridays (for cases confirmed by CDC on Wednesday and Thursday). Affected states may report cases more frequently."
Last day of 2024 was Tuesday. If the schedule above holds, all cases found in 2024 would have been up by EOD Wednesday. If the CDC had New Years Day off (?), then I would have expected cases from Tuesday to have been included in the Friday report.
I might be missing something. Your market; up to you.
@JonathanNankivell I'm looking at the breakdown here https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/h5-monitoring/index.html
@Bayesian gonna sit on my current position, I think the actual case count far exceeds 100 but I don’t want to increase my exposure to CDC footdragging on reporting or incompetence around testing
looks like they are in fact bottlenecking tests again
@jgyou There's a market for whether they'll keep the feature here: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-we-judge-autoadding-clarificat?play=true#u9nge3uwhqe
@jgyou is this whatever number is on the website at the end of the year, or will you wait some amount of time to see if the update the yearly totals?
@Sketchy I will wait for the weekly report which is usually 5 days later. Schedule might vary with new year
We should’ve exceeded 100 cases weeks ago. We’ve only tested 2139 samples for H5N1 for all 50 states in 2024 so far. We have a test positivity rate of 2.7% at 57 cases. That test count tripled in just the last 6 weeks, by the way. So up until October we’d only tested 746 samples for H5N1. There’s definitely a lot of undetected transmission occurring. I’m glad testing is finally increasing; we’ll certainly see an uptick in counts over the next few weeks.
Possible human-human transmission happening in MO https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/health/bird-flu-cluster-missouri.html