Will China still be a communist country on the following dates
Plus
18
Ṁ20482040
96%
by Jan 1, 2026
94%
by Jan 1, 2027
90%
by Jan 1, 2028
82%
by Jan 1, 2029
81%
by Jan 1, 2030
73%
by Jan 1, 2035
63%
by Jan 1, 2040
Resolved
YESby Jan 1, 2025
Will resolve based on the ruling party on the China wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China
As we go, I'll resolve / add additional dates to keep it interesting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Is being communist purely defined by self-identification here then? Even if their system has little to no resemblance to those advocated by Marx, Engels, Bakunin, Kropotkin, Proudhon etc?
@TheAllMemeingEye I’m outsourcing that to Wikipedia. If you can convince their editors, the market resolves along with it
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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