Who will be the next President to die?
Who will be the next President to die?
Plus
80
Ṁ33322029
16%
Bill Clinton
8%
George W. Bush
1.3%
Barack Obama
25%
Donald Trump
49%
Joe Biden
0.9%
Jimmy Carter excluded, who will be the next person to hold the office of the President to die?
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What was in the air in fall 1945? Trump, Clinton, and Bush were all born in the summer of 1946. Good year for presidents clearly.
@NickAllen I thought about that, but it was too early in the year. But yes, probably the US victory and subsequent baby boom were "in the air"
@benshindel it took a few months for dudes to get home, and I'm guessing that process didn't start until the documents were signed 2 Sep 45.
bought Ṁ5 Donald Trump YES
Trump’s obesity is not being taken into account here.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00