Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?

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Ṁ1878

2028

70%

chance

ALL

"Things will basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years and those worries are overstated ", from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements

No strict criteria. Resolves to my or a resolution council's judgment if there's any disagreement, resolution should agree with the consensus if there is one.

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8mo

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10mo

I think it won't be fine for everyone

bought Ṁ100 NO10mo

@RemNi Even before 2029?

10mo

@Bayesian well, I think lots of people will lose their middle class jobs before 2028, just not confident it will be enough to make this question resolve as NO

10mo

@Bayesian by the early 2030s there will mass job losses I think, but also lots of economic growth, so hard to predict what that means for a large chunk of society

I understand why you don't want strict criteria, but "several" should really be defined.

Four years seem good to everyone who's bet so far?

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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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