If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?
Plus
20
Ṁ8872028
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in capabilities in the next 5 years (a paradigm shifting technical discovery) will they publish an accompanying paper within a year of the discovery of the discovery, as opposed to keeping the discovery confidential.
Resolves to my understanding of whether an advancement takes place, and the presence or lack of an accompanying paper that sufficiently aids others in replicating the methodology used in the OpenAI advancement, like google's transformers paper does.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@wrhall I feel like this would still count - often just the announcement that something is possible is a big enough aid to make independent replication possible.
Related questions
Related questions
A major ML paper demonstrates symbolic-enhanced transformer successor outperforming standard transformers by March 2025
21% chance
Will any member of the OpenAI board publish a paper critical of OpenAI by the end of 2028?
62% chance
Will OpenAI release an AI product with a cool name by Jan 1, 2025?
36% chance
Will OpenAI release GTP-4.5 before GPT-5?
58% chance
Will OpenAI release next-generation models with varying capabilities and sizes?
77% chance
Will the OpenAI Non-Profit announce major AI Safety funding in 2025?
51% chance
Will there be a movie/TV show made that focuses on the trajectory of OpenAI from its inception? (By 2026)
75% chance
Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?
75% chance
Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)
8% chance
Will OpenAI fold in 2025?
6% chance