Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
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Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R. Martin.
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Does GRRM have to be the sole author/alive when the book is formally announced? Or does a “Pale King” situation a la DFW count as a YES here for resolution purposes?
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Just saw this question. Going by the text of the question, I think he doesn't have to be alive, but does have to be the sole author. (Though if I were writing a new question I would probably require him to be alive.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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