
Will Gazans displaced following Israel's evacuation orders be allowed back to Northern Gaza by EOY 2024?
Basic
12
Ṁ2974Jan 2
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will Gazans who fled to the south as a result of the Israeli evacuation orders be allowed back to Northern Gaza (e.g. Gaza City) by January 1st, 2025?
Question resolves positively if a major news outlet (e.g. AP, BBC, CNN, Reuters) confirms at least 100,000 Gazans (out of those displaced by the evacuation orders issued after October 7th, 2023) have been allowed to return, are in the process of returning, or have returned to the homes they abandoned following the evacuation of Northern Gaza by the first day of 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
With IDF poised to enter Rafah any day now, will there be an improvement to Gazans' situation by the end of the year?
Related questions
Related questions
Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
51% chance
[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?
14% chance
If Israel “eradicates” Hamas, will they allow > 600k Palestnians back into north of Wadi Gaza before end of 2025?
72% chance
Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?
19% chance
Will UNRWA continue to operate in the Palestinian territories (Gaza or West Bank) by EOY 2025?
75% chance
Israeli settler presence in Gaza before 2026?
17% chance