This market is based on What's Coming in 2024 by the Discourse Magazine editorial team
https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/whats-coming-in-2024
If the resolution is not obvious, the editorial team and author of the question will be asked to resolve in his most honest judgement. If there is no answer from the Discourse by January 30 2025, @itsTomekK + community judgement will be used.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST): - Full military occupation status as of today can be used to resolve the market. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Full military occupation will be considered as:
Israel assumes full military occupation in Gaza
Iran’s proxy Hamas is largely destroyed and its leadership scattered to other Arab states
Iran loses significant prestige among its “axis of resistance” allies for not allowing them to fight Israel and the U.S. harder
Benjamin Netanyahu remains as Israel’s prime minister.
1,000
3.00@itsTomekK Rest of predictions:
"In Gaza, Israel will assume full military occupation, with Iran’s proxy Hamas largely destroyed and its leadership scattered to other Arab states. At least Iran will lose significant prestige among its “axis of resistance” allies for not allowing them to fight Israel and the U.S. harder. Defying most predictions, Benjamin Netanyahu will remain as Israel’s prime minister. "