Will Ethan Caballero coauthor a paper/preprint/proceeding with anyone from epoch.ai in 2024/2025?
Will Ethan Caballero coauthor a paper/preprint/proceeding with anyone from epoch.ai in 2024/2025?
Basic
2
Ṁ302026
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
30% chance
will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
31% chance
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
74% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2026?
30% chance
Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?
45% chance
Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?
7% chance
Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?
75% chance
Will any top economist author or coauthor a paper on the journal Seeds of Science?
26% chance
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
8% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
40% chance