Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?
Basic
6
Ṁ148Dec 31
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See my other questions for context. For this question to resolve YES, I have to be a co-author (or the sole author) of a finished research paper that is directly related to AI safety or AI alignment by the end of 2024. The paper need not be published in a journal for this to resolve, but a complete final version has to be produced.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
30% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
49% chance
I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026
59% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2026?
58% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
62% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
75% chance
Will an "AI Safety Textbook" be available before the end of 2024?
46% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
72% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
23% chance
WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?
73% chance