Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
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The Associated Press or New York Times (or other similarly reputable new source) reports that the People's Republic of China has implemented a blockade against Taiwan and the blockade has lasted at least 10 days or has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.
A Chinese blockade has closed access to 1+ major Taiwanese ports including but not limited to: Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, and Taipei. This closure has lasted at least 10 days or the blockade has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.
No outlying islands (kinmen, etc.) count
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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