Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 (IEA), increasing 410 million tonnes (Mt) to reach a new record high of 37.4 billion tonnes (Gt).
Here is the graph for the past few years.
China alone grew around 565 Mt. China's growth was greater than the rest of the world's decrease but some think it may be close to peak.
Will 2025 emissions be lower than 2024?
This market will resolves based on IEA's numbers when released based on the actual change in CO2 emissions between the two years, no matter what extraordinary event (like COVID) may happen each year.
I have created the same market for 2024, hope it helps adjust your bets!
1,000
3.00@RichardKnoche US has decoupled GDP and emissions growth with shale gas and renewables. China popped a property bubble and reduced GDP growth. Europe both decoupled AND stopped growing.
In 2024 it seemed like India's emissions growth made up for China's reduction but it's at least plausible that the reductions could win. I'm going by Carbon Monitor which has a different methodology to IEA (and extremely confusing graphs): https://carbonmonitor.org/variation
@adssx Yeah but as long as other countries develop the emissions would probably increase.
I think this would only happen if we have a global recession.
@RichardKnoche I don't think we need a global recession, just in India, right? Slower growth might even be enough. Most other countries are either developed enough to have peaked or have not developed enough to make a big difference in 2025.
Anyway, a global recession seems pretty unlikely so if you're right you should make a good profit filling my order at 25%, let me know if it's not big enough!
@fwbt If Carbon Monitor is right and we're already at +0.7% as of April 30th then we would need a fairly large recession starting this summer to offset the growth of the early months, no?
@adssx I would have guessed that's the YoY number but I'm honestly unsure. Looking at individual months the numbers seem quite noisy but that could just be seasonal variations.
@fwbt I think I'm not confident enough 😂.
It's pretty tough to estimate over 1 year.
- China wants to be energy dependent which is why they invest so much in renewable
- Europe wants to reduce their emissions but somehow have a bigger increase than the US.
- No idea why Indias emissions are decreasing.
- The rest of the world probably doesn't care that much and wants to prioritise growth. But since their emissions are low compared to the "advanced economies" they don't matter for this market.
Trade war also probably reduces the emissions in the short term.
On top of this AI will probably require not clean energy in the short term to meet demand...