Who will win the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?
Who will win the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?
14
Ṁ3312028
32%
32%
JD Vance
7%
Donald Trump Jr.
7%
Nikki Haley
7%
Ron DeSantis
7%
Marco Rubio
3%
No one
3%
Vivek Ramaswamy
3%
Kim Reynolds
This market will resolve to the candidate with the greatest number of votes in the 2028 Iowa Republican caucuses. In case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. If no caucus is held by September 1st, 2028, this market will resolve to "No one."
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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