Invalid contract
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the date on which both the Bishop of Rome (the Pope) and the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople officially declare that they are in full communion. The resolution will be based on formal statements or joint declarations issued by both leaders, accessible through official channels such as the Vatican's press releases or the Ecumenical Patriarchate's communications.
Background
The Catholic Church, led by the Pope, and the Eastern Orthodox Church, led by the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople, have been separated since the Great Schism of 1054. Efforts toward reconciliation have been ongoing, with significant milestones including the mutual lifting of excommunications in 1965 and various dialogues aimed at restoring unity. (en.wikipedia.org)
Considerations
While recent statements, such as those by Pope Leo XIV in June 2025, express a commitment to restoring full visible communion, no official declaration has yet been made. (vaticannews.va) Traders should monitor official communications from both the Vatican and the Ecumenical Patriarchate for any developments indicating a formal agreement on full communion.
Update 2025-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about edge cases, the creator has specified the following:
If no individuals are claiming the positions of Pope and Patriarch, the market will resolve to NO.
In the case of schisms or multiple claimants to the positions, the creator will personally determine who has the best claim.
The size of the group each leader presides over is not relevant to the resolution.
1,000
3.00If both the Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox churches cease to exist, or fall into societally irrelevant dormancy, or undergo many further schisms such that it's ambiguous which churches are the originals, or abolish the positions of Pope/Patriarch, does this resolve NO (because they didn't declare communion) or N/A (because they couldn't if they wanted anymore)?
@TheAllMemeingEye this is only about the two men who, in my opinion, are the clearest successors to Bartholomew and Leo. If there are really no people at all claiming those positions this resolves no, if anyone claims those positions i will choose the person for each position who has the best claim and see if those two people consider themselves in communion, the size of group they lead is irrelevant to this question. I doubt there will be any real doubt who those people are, but i can't figure out now how i would decide if there was doubt.