Is America on the brink of a Christian revival?
Is America on the brink of a Christian revival?
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Tl;dr: resolves YES if 40%+ of Americans describe themselves in 2025 as “born again” or evangelical Christians according to Gallup polling.
See https://twitter.com/pjchougule/status/1517835765409107969 and https://twitter.com/dglid/status/1520175717841055747
This market will resolve YES if 40% or more respond “yes” to Gallup’s polling question "Would you describe yourself as a "born-again" or evangelical Christian?" in its annual polling of the question in 2025, which is expected to be found at https://news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx.
36% described themselves as born-again or evangelical Christian in '21, 34% in '20, and 37% in '19. See the full trends since 1992 at the link above.
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Evangelicalism has a bad name for both liberal "white evangelicalism" and conservative "big evangelicalism" Christians. I want it to happen but I don't think it will and even if there is a revival I think the branding will be different.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00