Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?
Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?
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Resolves YES if, by 2031, a person other than Thomas Matthew Crooks is arrested, tried, and found guilty in a US Court of law for criminal negligence, aiding and abetting, or otherwise helping with Crook's assassination attempt on Trump. The person may or may not have been in contact with Crooks. For example, a secret service agent or someone else may be convicted of negligence if they saw the shooter in advance but decided not to act in a reasonable manner to save the president's life.
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Possibly his father for loaning him his gun?
It seems his parents somehow realized that something was off, and notified the authorities that day in advance of the shooting …
His parents are both social workers. And he was searching “major depressive disorder” (in addition to Trump, Biden, royal family, and Attorney General Garland, the Butler Rally and the DNC convention.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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