Will Marc with a q reach his target weight of 170lbs by end of 2025
Will Marc with a q reach his target weight of 170lbs by end of 2025
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4
Ṁ4252026
43%
chance
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Background
Marc with a q is currently 228.6lbs and is a member of Maximus Tribe (https://discord.gg/xNyG7rMU)
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve as YES if Marc with a q reaches or drops below 170lbs at any point before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025, as evidenced by a verifiable weight measurement (such as a photo of a scale or public announcement in the Maximus Tribe discord). The market will resolve as NO if he does not reach 170lbs by this deadline.
Considerations
The target requires losing 58.6lbs (25.6% of current body weight), which exceeds the average results from clinical trials
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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