Will the Conservative Party of Canada win a parliamentary supermajority in next federal election?
Will the Conservative Party of Canada win a parliamentary supermajority in next federal election?
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Canadian parliament is slated for a federal election on or before 20 October 2025.
There will be 348 electoral districts in the next election. A supermajority means 66%+1, which would be 230 seats for the next parliament.
338Canada currently projects the Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party winning 221 seats in the House of Commons.
Will the Conservatives win a supermajority in Canada's House of Commons at the conclusion of the next federal election?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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