Will a country in sub-Saharan Africa be declared malaria-free by the WHO before 2030?
Will a country in sub-Saharan Africa be declared malaria-free by the WHO before 2030?
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The World Health Organization (WHO) certifies countries as malaria-free if have three consecutive years with zero indigenous cases.
In early 2024, the WHO certified Cape Verde as malaria free, the first sub-Saharan African country to obtain this status in over 50 years (BBC).
Will another country in sub-Saharan Africa be certified by the WHO as being malaria free before 2030?
Sub-Saharan Africa is defined as Africa excluding North Africa, but including Sudan (i.e. every country in any shade of green on Wikipedia's page for sub-Saharan Africa).
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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