Will ChatGPT conversation history be critical to the success of future OpenAI models? (Ṁ200 subsidy)
Plus
21
Ṁ769Jan 1
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if OpenAI publicly acknowledges this data being particularly useful for training further iterations of GPT4 or different successors, or trustworthy leaks (my credence), stating that this was an integral component of success.
Resolves NO if other factors (architecture, training techniques, other token sources) are judged as having been largely more important.
Resolves N/A if market closes and question is unsanswerable due to insufficient information being public.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@MatthewRitter I think if there was significant evidence that it was 20% of performance improvement I would still count that!
Related questions
Related questions
Has openAI intentionally made chatGPT lazy to save inference costs?
21% chance
Will OpenAI offer a free tier for chatGPT through the end of 2025?
91% chance
Will OpenAI continue to run ChatGPT (or something substantially similar to it) in January 2025?
96% chance
Will OpenAI offer a free tier for chatGPT through the end of 2024?
95% chance
Will an OpenAI model be able to recall the information across all our chat history by 2025?
93% chance
Will any speech model exceed chatGPT interest? (by 2025)
2% chance